​Canada, Brazil to underpin oil growth outside OPEC and the U.S. to 2030

Image: Cenovus Energy

While capital investment in new Canadian oil production has dropped significantly from past levels, the country is still expected to be an important player in the global growth market, according to a report this week from Wood Mackenzie.

The juggernaut U.S. Lower 48 is expected to enjoy continued growth through the medium term, with its oil and condensate production expected to reach a plateau of over 11 million bbls/d in the mid to late-2020s.

Dominated by the Permian Basin, the U.S. will remain the key driver of global oil supply growth into the middle of the next decade, Wood Mackenzie said.

Canada and Brazil are together expected to add the most production outside the U.S. by 2030. In Brazil’s case, this is thanks to a strong pipeline of pre-salt developments that should see production grow each year to 2030 by an average of 130,000 bbls/d.

Meanwhile, “Canada has seen a recovery in drilling rates and production continues to rise from oilsands projects. Output is forecast to increase a further 750,000 bbls/d over the next decade,” Wood Mackenzie said.

This is a bit more conservative than the latest forecast from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, which this spring predicted that crude oil and condensate growth from western Canada would increase by about 1.25 million bbls/d between 2017 and 2030.

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