​7 predictions about the next 20 years of energy

The latest edition of the annual BP Energy Outlook was released on Wednesday, under the theme of an energy transition underway.

The outlook, launched in London by BP Group chief economist Spencer Dale and CEO Bob Dudley, examines long-term energy trends and projections for world energy markets.

“The global energy landscape is changing,” Dudley said.

“Traditional centers of demand are being overtaken by fast-growing emerging markets. The energy mix is shifting, driven by technological improvements and environmental concerns. More than ever, our industry needs to adapt to meet those challenging energy needs.”

Here are seven key takeaways from the BP report’s base, or most likely, forecast case:

  1. Global energy demand is expected to increase by around 30 percent to 2035, driven by increasing prosperity in developing countries, partially offset by rapid gains in energy efficiency.
  2. Technological improvements and environmental concerns are changing the mix of primary energy demand, but oil and gas, together with coal, remain the main source of energy to 2035.
  3. Gas grows faster than either oil or coal; the rapid expansion of LNG is likely to lead to a globally integrated gas market, anchored by US gas prices.
  4. Oil demand grows but at a slowing pace; and non-combusted uses such as petrochemicals replace transport as the main source of demand growth by 2030s.
  5. Global coal consumption peaks, while renewables remain by far the fastest-growing energy source, quadrupling over the next 20 years.
  6. The power sector accounts for nearly two-thirds of the increase in primary energy.
  7. Carbon emissions grow at less than a third of the rate of the past 20 years, reflecting both gains in energy efficiency and the changing fuel mix, but in the base case are still projected to increase, which BP says highlights the need for further action.

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