​Oilsands production ‘just shy’ of 3 million bbls/d in June, IEA raises forecast

Image: Joey Podlubny/JWN

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is expecting additional growth in Canadian oil production this year and next as “robust production” adds to the rebound from last year’s wildfire and boosts total volumes as new major projects come online.

The agency says oilsands production rose by approximately 100,000 bbls/d in June, following a rise of 140,000 bbls/d the previous month, to “just shy of 3 million bbls/d.” Meanwhile production off the East Coast held steady at about 240,000 bbls/d.

“Robust production has led us to revise up our forecast for Canadian oil production, with output now expected to grow by 285,000 bbls/d this year and a further 200,000 in 2018,” the IEA said in its September 2017 oil market report.

The agency had predicted 2017 growth at 220,000 bbls/d and 180,000 bbls/d in 2018 in its last monthly report.

“While annual gains in 2017 largely stem from the rebound effect from last year’s wildfires, gains in 2018 will come from the start-up of the Fort Hills oilsands project and the heavy crude oil Hebron project,” the IEA said. It expects total Canadian oil production to reach 4.95 million bbls/d next year.